NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
Satellite Precipitation Message

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/05/14 1837Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1800Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1605Z FOR SNOWFALL RATE PRODUCT
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LOCATION...OHIO...MICHIGAN...INDIANA...ILLINOIS...
LOCATION...MISSOURI...
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ATTN WFOS...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...LINGERING MISSOURI SNOW...ILLINOIS SNOW...INDIANA RAIN SOUTH
AND SNOW NORTH....S MI AND N OHIO SNOW...HVY RAIN COMING FOR S OHIO...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...TO SAY THE LEAST...COMPLICATED PATTERN
WITH TRANSITION TO SNOW IN EXT SE ILLINOIS AND WESTERN PART OF S INDIANA
RAIN AREAS THIS PERIOD...ALL SNOW REST OF ILLINOIS...C AND N INDIANA
INTO S MICHIGAN AND SNOW PUSHING EAST ACROSS NW OHIO. MAIN SATELLITE
FEATURES WERE NOW WELL DEVELOPED MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST
WITH ITS AXIS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
ADVECTING MOISTURE IN AN EFFICIENT MANNER INTO INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO.
LIKE SAID EARLIER...SOME OF THE BEST PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS HAVE LOW
LEVEL WINDS PARALLEL THE HIGHEST MOISTURE THAT ALLOWS THE RELEASE OF
MODERATE TO HVY PRECIPITATION TO BE MORE EASILY BE REPLACED BY ADDITIONAL
HIGH MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN. THIS THE CASE RIGHT NOW AND WHOLE
AREA WILL KEEP SHIFTING EAST AND ENE NEXT 3HRS. LATEST NESDIS SNOWFALL
RATE PRODUCT THAT USES MICROWAVE DATA FROM POLAR ORBITING SATELLITES TO
PRODUCE SNOW-WATER EQUIVALENT RATES IN THE CLOUDS WAS SHOWING AT 16Z MAX
RATES OF 0.06"-0.09"/HR WITH COLDEST CLOUD TOPS BAND OF COMMA TAIL PUSHING
ACROSS INDIANA. THIS CAN CERTAINLY BE TRANSLATING INTO SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-1.5"/HR WITH ISOLATED 2.0"/HR RATES AND IF T-STORMS ARE OCCURRING
MAYBE EVEN 2.5"/HR RATES JUST NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS FOR EXAMPLE.
ONE SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE THRU NE ILLINOIS WAS BOTH HELPING TO GRAB
WESTERN EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE FOR MODERATE/OCCL SNOW IN THE CHICAGO AREA
AND EXTENSION OF THAT SHORT WAVE WAS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE HVY SNOWS IN
THE NORTHERN INDIANA AREA AS IT SHIFTS EAST. FURTHER SOUTH MINOR BUT
IMPORTANT WEAK SHORT WAVES GOING ACROSS NE MO/W CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND C
ILLINOIS WERE ALSO ACTING ON DEEP MOISTURE THAT WAS CONVEYOR BELTING
BACK WEST TO HELP PRODUCE THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN C ILLINOIS.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HANGING FURTHER BACK WAS CROSSING NW MO
AND OUT AHEAD PROVIDING THE LIFT AND LATCHING ON TO THE CONVEYOR BELT
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE LINGERING LIGHT TO OCCL MODERATE SNOW IN THE
E CENTRAL MO/STL AREA THAT WILL BE SHIFTING OUT OF THERE DURING THE
NEXT 3-4HRS. ALSO OF INTEREST WAS SUBTROPICAL-POLAR JET COMBO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO OHIO THAT WAS ALSO
HELPING TO PROVIDE DESTABILIZATION TO ACT ON DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND MIXING IT UP IN THE COLDER AIR FURTHER NORTH AND NW FOR THE HEAVY
SNOW CENTERED N INDIANA/NE ILLINOIS INTO EXT S MI AND NW OHIO.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1830-2130Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...ALL ENTITIES DESCRIBES ABOVE SHIFTING EAST AND NE.
EXPECT HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
INDIANA/FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO N OHIO WITH SNOW RATES COULD MAX OUT
AT 1.5"-2.0"/HIGHLY ISOLATED 2.5"/HR WITH ANY T-STORMS (SEE GRAPHIC
SHORTLY). BACK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MISSOURI SHIFTING EAST AND
TAPPERING THE SNOWS ACROSS MISSOURI AND WORKING INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS.
STILL SOME DECENT LIQUID PRECIP S INDIANA THAT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
TO SNOW OR END ACROSS SW AND S CENTRAL INDIANA AND INCRG LIQUID PRECIP
FOR SW OHIO AND THE CINCINNATI AREA AND C KY WHERE ISOLATED MAX 3 HR
AMOUNTS COULD REACH 0.5"-0.8"...AT LEAST JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
BACK EDGE SNOW NORTHEAST ILLINOIS COULD CONTINUE TO CATCH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE SNOWS THERE TILL NE MO/W CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SHORT WAVE GOES BY JUST AFTER 2130Z.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4289 8378 4016 8371 3799 9123 4009 8923
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Graphic Depicting Features in SPE Message