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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/02/18 1050Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 15 1000Z; SSMIS/AMSU 0910Z;HIGH DENSITY WINDS;FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PLUME OF MOISTURE CENTERED OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND APPROACHING AREAS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE WATER QUANTITIES BY SSMIS/AMSU ESTIMATES TO BE BETWEEN 1.6 AND 2.0 INCHES. GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS REVELED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 175W WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE BIG ISLAND NEAR 153W. DYNAMIC LIFT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TO THE WEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT PRODUCED BY DIFFLUENT WIND VECTORS WILL GENERATE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES IN A MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY TROPICAL DOWNPOURS WITH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1045-1745Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE CENTRAL PART OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN WILL BE IMPACTED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. A CHANNEL OF MOISTURE IS CENTERED OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH HEAVIER CONVECTION. RADAR INDICATES AN APPROACHING AREA OF CONVECTION AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2237 16019 2231 15397 1876 15474 1880 16106 2236 16020 . NNNN |
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