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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/14/18 2208Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:2130Z JS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...DISCUSSION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER KAUAI. . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WATER VAPOR ANIMATION OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO SHOWS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE SW OF THE HAWAIIAN CHAIN HAS BECOME MORE NORTH-SOUTH ELONGATED WITH THE PRIMARY CENTER MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH. TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE, MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND SPREAD FARTHER TO THE NORTH PER TRENDS NOTED ON THE ANIMATION OF AMSU PW DATA AS WELL AS FROM THE RECENT SOUNDING FROM LIHUE WHICH REVEALS A NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT TO WELL ABOVE 500MB. THE AMSU PASS FROM AFTER 20z INDICATES A SWATH OF PW VALUES TO 2.0" AND HIGHER CENTERED OVER KAUAI. MICROWAVE DATA INCLUDING THE 89GHZ BAND APPEARS TO SHOW THE PRESENCE OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF AN OLD LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST VIRTUALLY OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION OF THE CU FIELD TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS SEEMS TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX WITH RATHER STRONG APPARENT S TO SE INFLOW AIMED MORE TOWARD THE WESTERN ISLANDS AND ESPECIALLY KAUAI. IN ADDITION, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER BOUNDARY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF CONVECTION. THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU PASS FROM AFTER 20Z DID DEPICT INSTANTANEOUS AREAL AVERAGE RAIN RATES OF OVER .35"/HR WITH ACTIVITY ALONG THIS LINE THOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SINCE THIS PASS TIME. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2200-0400Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNATURE WITH THE CURRENT ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE TERRAIN OF KAUAI SO NOT ABLE TO PROVIDE ANY GUIDANCE FOR THAT SITUATION OTHER THAN NOTING THE FAVORABLE APPARENT LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX IN THE CU FIELD AIMED TOWARD KAUAI SEEN IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH IMPLIES CONTINUED DECENT TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE EFFECTS FROM THE TROF AXIS/BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE W AND SW OF KAUAI IS NOT AS CERTAIN GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT TO THIS BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CURRENT EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THIS LINE ON A TRAJECTORY TO REMAIN MAINLY W OF KAUAI AT LEAST FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF ANYTHING CHANGES WITH REGARD TO THIS BOUNDARY BEING PUSHED A BIT FARTHER TO THE E OR REFORMING FARTHER TO THE E, THEN KAUAI WOULD BE MORE IN LINE FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM IT. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2256 16013 2255 15389 1878 15462 1879 16099 2254 16016 . NNNN |
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