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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/15/18 0202Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES_15 0130Z;SSMIS/AMSU 0100Z; FS . LOCATION...WESTERN ISLANDS OF HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...DISCUSSION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER KAUAI. . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS... WESTERN ISLANDS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THREE INCHES IN THREE HOURS AT LIHUE. THE RECENT SOUNDING FROM LIHUE HAS A NEARLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT UP TO 500MB AND A PW EQUAL TO 1.98". THE AMSU PASS FROM 00Z INDICATES A SWATH OF PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.50-2.67" TO THE WEST OF KAUAI AND THE PATTERN ALOFT NEAR 250 MB DOES INDICATE DIVERGENT/DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WIND VECTORS NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK WHICH SHOULD EQUATE TO ENHANCED UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES. AS AN AREA OF CLEARLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER QUANTITIES APPROACHES, THE AMSU PASS FROM AFTER 00Z DID DEPICT INSTANTANEOUS AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 0.35 TO 0.75 INCHES PER HOUR. SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE A BIT HIGHER OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LIFT OF HIGHER MOISTURE QUANTITIES UPSTREAM; THEREFORE, THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHER ALL THINGS BEING CONSIDERED. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0200-1000Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO KAUAI AND THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RIPPLES IN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SW AND S FACING TERRAIN. SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT OF THIS BOUNDARY WHICH COULD KEEP THE CURRENT EXISTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THIS LINE ON A TRAJECTORY TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS AT LEAST FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH KAUAI BEING MORE IN LINE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM IT. RADAR ACTIVITY INDICATES A LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN APPROACHING KAUAI. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2256 16013 2255 15389 1878 15462 1879 16099 2254 16016 . NNNN |
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