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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/24/18 0641Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: RADAR 0632Z; SSMIS/AMSU 0504Z; GOES 15 0600Z; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AN APPROACHING AREA OF CONVECTION WITH AN EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARD OAHU FROM THE WEST ATTM. HIGHER OBSERVED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OVER KAUAI AND OAHU ARE NEAR 1.50 IN/HR OVER THE EASTERN SIDES OF THE ISLANDS AND 0.30 IN/HR TO 0.50 IN/HR OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE SW TO NE WEST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND FLOW FROM A TROUGH AT 166W TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AT 156W JUST WEST OF THE ISLAND IF HAWAII. UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW DETERMINED USING GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH INCLUDE MULTIPLE JET STREAKS WITH VELOCITIES EXCEEDING 100KTS WITHIN EACH JET MAX. DYNAMIC LIFT GENERATED IN THIS MOIST MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH SSMIS/AMSU PW QUANTITIES ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.2, AND EARLIER CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 100-250 J/KG WILL PROVIDE LIFT OF MOISTURE IN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. FLASH FLOODING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED OVER KAUAI AND OAHU EARLY IN THE OUTLOOK WITH ISLANDS TO THE EAST RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LATER. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0645-1545Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WITH POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF ACTIVITY SEEN ON RADAR MOVING TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE WEST. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2272 16028 2268 16005 2258 15342 1859 15442 1875 16152 . NNNN |
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