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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/14/18 1551Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: RADAR; GOES 15 WV IMAGERY 1530Z; HIGH DENSITY WINDS; FS/MC . LOCATION...WESTERN ISLANDS OF HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES 15 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE HIGH DENSITY WINDS ANALYSIS SHOW A DISTINCT WAVE AND S/WV ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED AT 26N/168W AND TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING 28N/165W TO 23N/172.5W HAS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIRECTED TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. IN A MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT, A REGION OF MAXIMUM SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER MAUI WITH VALUES OF 324K THETA E VALUES AT THE H85 LEVEL. HIGHER MOISTURE IS OVER THE WESTERN MOST ISLANDS, WHERE THE LIHUE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED HIGHER PW QUANTITIES AND HIGHER CAPE. H85 LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE E AND SE WITH H25 UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE WSW. EMBEDDED JET STREAKS WILL ENHANCE LIFT AS WELL AS PVA GENERATED WITH THE APPROACH OF A VORT MAX ROTATING AND TRANSLATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEAR 19.5N/164.5W AT 15Z. A SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM, MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SLOWER WIND VELOCITIES ALOFT...THE POTENTIAL IS GREATEST OVER OAHU AND KAUAI AND NIIHAU, NOT EXCLUDING THE OTHER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1550Z-2350Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RADAR REFLECTIVITY IS WIDELY SCATTERED AT THE MOMENT. UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT INDICATED USING THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED FIELDS FROM HIGH DENSITY WINDS PRODUCTS SHOW POSITIVE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS MOVING TOWARD OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH AN INDICATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND TROPICAL DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. THE RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY INDICATE 2-3" HOURLY RATES. FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN KAUAI. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2259 16001 2259 15999 2259 15354 1873 15494 1878 16136 . NNNN |
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