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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/18/18 2000Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 WV/HIGH DENSITY WINDS 19Z; SSMIS/AMSU 19Z;FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...A POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING EVENT IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL PUERTO RICO WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL RADAR/LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN EXISTENCE OF A BOUNDARY AHEAD OF A FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST, WHERE AN AXIS OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INDICATED USING GOES HIGH DENSITY WIND ANALYSIS EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA THROUGH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND OVER PUERTO RICO. PW QUANTITIES RANGE FROM 1.3 TO 2.0 INCHES. THE 12Z TJSJ RAOB INDICATED A 1.5 PW, A CAPE OF 900 J/KG WITH AN LI=-6C. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CI CLOUDS EMANATING FROM THE THUNDERSTORM TOPS INDICATING UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FLOWING FROM WNW-ESE AND OPPOSED BY LOWER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST WHICH HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION AS THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS DRIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THE HOURLY RATES AVAILABLE ARE 0.60 INCHES PER HOUR ATTM. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2000-2300Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL EXCEEDING AN INCH PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION. AS THE SUN SETS THE ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH. THE AXIS OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COULD ALLOW THE ACTIVITY TO LAST A BIT LONGER. AREAS HAVING RECEIVED RAIN ALREADY MAY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1901 6731 1900 6731 1898 6414 1737 6461 1740 6794 . NNNN |
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