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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/20/18 0812Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 0730Z HANNA . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MOST RECENT WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING THAT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WAS FEATURING LARGE SCALE TROF OVER THE CNTRL PAC ALONG AROUND 150W THAT EXTENDED SW ALONG SHEAR AXIS TO JUST W OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. MOST RECENT GOES WINDS WERE SUGGESTING SOME WEAKLY COUPLED JET PATTERN BETWEEN JET STREAKS CENTERED NEAR 24N/158W AND ONE FURTHER UPSTREAM NEAR 18N/172W. THE SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS SW FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS HAS HELPED TO TAP A MOISTURE POOL SW OF THE ISLAND PARTICULARLY IN THE 700MB-300MB ZONE AND TRANSPORT IT NE. FURTHER TO THE EAST, IN THE LOWER LEVELS, BLENDED PW ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE WITH REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRANSPORTED W WITHIN ANOMALOUS TRADE WINDS. THIS COMBINATION HAS INCREASED MOISTURE ANOMALIES OVER THE REGION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND WERE NOW RUNNING AROUND 175% ABOVE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. MOST RECENT SSMI/S AND AMSU RAINFALL RATES WERE SHOWING MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL RATES ALONG AN AXIS THROUGH THE CNTRL ISLANDS OF UP TO 0.10" BUT WOULD EXPECT THAT THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL RATES AND COVERAGE AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHEAR AXIS AND COUPLED JET PATTERN OVERSPREAD THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WAS RATHER WEAK OVER THE ISLAND, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS TO PARTIALLY OFFSET THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING TO AT LEAST CONTINUE THE WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION. AS EXPECTED, HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN THE FAVORED OROGRAPHIC REGIONS AS MODEST LOW LEVEL E WIND ANOMALIES SHOULD TEND TO INCREASE AS LARGE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2283 15967 2232 15763 2123 15532 2002 15435 1883 15432 1800 15604 1870 15711 2029 15789 2108 15996 2199 16116 . NNNN |
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