ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/26/18 1858Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-16 VIS 1830Z,BLTPW 1700Z;MC . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...TERRAIN-ENHANCED CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES-16 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE TERRAIN-INDUCED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER OVER PUERTO RICO. TPW VALUES MAX OUT OVER 2" OVER THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOES VISIBLE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE SE ACROSS THE ISLAND, ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD TERRAIN-ENHANCED CONVECTION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE WIDER-SCALE VISIBLE LOOP. THE 12Z SJU RAOB INDICATED A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH CAPE OF OVER 1200 J/KG AND PW OF 1.57". DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIKELY HAVE INCREASED BOTH OF THESE VALUES. EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE SE PORTION OF PUERTO RICO PRODUCED RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 1"/HR, AND SOME CONVECTION IS NOW OCCURRING OVER THE NW PART OF THE ISLAND. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-0200Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1"/HR, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THIS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEPER TERRAIN. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNSET. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1897 6761 1896 6758 1894 6517 1757 6509 1756 6759 . NNNN |
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