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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/19/18 0957Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 15 IR_10.7 0930Z; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES 15 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NEAR KAUAI AND THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF HAWAII. CYCLONIC ROTATION WAS SEEN MOVING FROM SE TO NW NEAR 20.5N/157W AS A LARGER SCALE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS THE AREA OF ROTATION MOVES TO THE NW. ACTIVITY UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND POTENTIALLY GENERATE UPWARD MOTION WITH THE APPROACH OF CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INDICATING A TROUGH MAY BE MOVING SOUTH ADDING LIFT AS WELL. THE AIR IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH DEW POINTS ABOVE 70 DEG F. ALTHOUGH LAUNCHED MUCH EARLIER, THE BALLOON SOUNDING FROM LIHUE SHOWED CAPE EXCEEDING 3500 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -8, THEREFORE, WITH MOISTURE, BUOYANCY AND LIFT IN PLACE AND AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH CLOUDS ON IMAGERY MOVING IN MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS, THE HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP AND CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...AMOUNTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0955-1430Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH APPROACHING ACTIVITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SEEN ON IMAGERY APPROACHING HAWAII. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE DEVELOPING, RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HAWAII ALONG THE NORTHERN ISLANDS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATEL 0930 LITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2264 16159 2259 15783 2256 15784 1859 15295 1864 15637 . NNNN |
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