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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/30/18 1600Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 WV 6.9 1530Z; AMSU RR 1520Z; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... .F EVENT...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL PUERTO RICO AND USVI . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST SATELLITE GOES 16 WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED ACTIVITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TRAVELING ACROSS THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO FROM SE TO NW. LOCAL RADAR THAT SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING BECOMING ORIENTED NE-SW TRAVELING NW IN A LINE OF THUNDER STORMS AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THE LATEST AMSU AND BLTPW PW VALUES EXCEED 2.5 INCHES WITHIN THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 1430Z TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF PUERTO RICO NOW PASSING THROUGH THE ISLAND BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL. 1520Z SATELLITE ESTIMATED AMSU RAINFALL RATES ARE 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR UPSTREAM WITHIN THE APPROACHING WAVE. EXPECTED HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WITH TROPICAL DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERNING FACTOR IN TERMS OF FLOODING DANGER. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1600-0000Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...VERY HIGH MOISTURE IN A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM WITHIN THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. IN TERMS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE THE PW AMOUNTS 2.3 INCHES IN A BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY HIGH CAPE TO SUPPORT LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH A TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IN THE FORM OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE NAM COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED A HIGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL BETWEEN 18-00Z OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAYTIME. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1862 6500 1773 6529 1774 6760 1860 6731 1860 6731 . NNNN |
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