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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/03/21 1204Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES17 IR/WV ; 1020Z AMSU; PHKI RADAR 1159Z; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL APPROACHING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES17 IR/WV IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE FAR WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32.5 N 165.0 W MOVING SSE WITH AN ATTENDANT LINE OF CLOUDS TO THE SW, ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WILL CROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT. DIVERGENCE AT UPPER LEVELS CAN BE INFERRED WITH CLOUD FEATURES SHOWING EXPANSION IN MOST RECENT IMAGERY; FURTHERMORE, CLOUD ELEMENTS LOOK UNSTABLE INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR UPWARD MOTION WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. S/WV ENERGY WITHIN THE WV AXIS WILL GENERATE PVA AND ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS, AS IT TRAVELS THROUGH THE WV AXIS. AMSU PW PRODUCT INDICATES A PW QUANTITY EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES IN THIS AXIS, WITH STRONGEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS BETWEEN OAHU/MOLOKAI. SATELLITE DERIVED ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES PER AMSU ARE 0.25 IN/HR WITHIN THE APPROACHING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF HAWAII, WITH HIGHER EMBEDDED RATES 0.70 IN/HR PER SSMIS SENSORS NEAR 23N/165W AS OF 1044Z WITHIN THE RAIN AREA. PONDING OF ROADWAYS IS PROBABLE WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE EAST THE ENTIRE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN CAN BE IMPACTED WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1205-0205Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO TO BE A THREAT FOR THE WESTERN ISLANDS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH, RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. WESTERN ISLANDS IN UP SLOPE AREAS FACING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHERE ALONG WESTERN ISLANDS WILL RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RECENT PHLI METAR OBSERVATIONS AT LIHUE INDICATE MODERATE RAINFALL RATES. GFS COMPUTER WEATHER FORECAST MODEL SHOWS SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL 850MB CONVERGENCE AND 1.25-1.75 PW QUANTITIES WITHIN THE AXIS. RADAR SHOWS A DENSE AREA OF RAIN WEST OF THE ISLANDS, AHEAD OF THE MASS IS STREAMS OF ALIGNED CONVECTION, WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN THAT MAY BE PROBLEMATIC AS MOISTURE IS FORCED UP STEEPER TERRAIN FACING SOUTH. FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLE ALL DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2106 15470 1922 15389 1826 15602 1983 15702 . NNNN |
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