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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/28/21 0516Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 17 0500Z;PHTO RAOB 00Z; AMSU PW;MESONET;FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII ISLAND A.K.A BIG ISLAND AND MAUI ISLAND... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING HAWAII AND MAUI ISLANDS . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES W17 SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY PRIOR TO SUNSET SHOWED GROWING SHADOWS OF VERTICAL CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. WV IMAGERY REVEALED CYCLONIC MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ROTATION AT 22N/155W AT 00Z, AS S/WV ENERGY MOVED FROM ABOUT 13N/165W TO NE TO 17N/161N OVER AN 8 HOUR PERIOD TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS GENERATING PVA, OR POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH ITS APPROACH FROM THE SW. PW QUANTITIES BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND DECREASE TO 1.3 INCHES OVER MAUI. FIELDS OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ARE VERY FAVORABLE OVER MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND BECAUSE SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST OVER PHTO AND NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MAUI FOCUS THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN-MOST ISLANDS IN THE ISLAND CHAIN. HAWAII ISLAND AND MAUI AREAS OF CONCERN REGARDING FLASH FLOODING. PHTO RAOB INDICATED 1162 J/KG CAPE WITH WBZ LESS THAN 10K FT AND THE FREEZING LEVEL LESS THAN 12K FT THAT SHOWS THAT INSTABILITY CAN A FACTOR DUE TO AVAILABLE ENERGY FOR BUOYANCY AS COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION RESULTING IN FAVORABLE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS AND AN ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO GROW, AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE WEST ALLOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO BE MAINTAINED, AS RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO BECOME EXCESSIVE WITH LONGER LIVED SHOWERS. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0515-1115Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWS RAINFALL THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND, WITH SOME HEAVIER ELEMENTS OVER THE EAST PORTION OF THE ISLAND OF MAUI. A MESOSCALE VORTEX WAS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BIG ISLAND, ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE, IT MAY ACT AS AN AREA WHERE RAINFALL WOULD BE ENHANCED, RESULTING IN HEAVIER RAINFALL. MESOSCALE NETWORKS OF RATES OF RAINFALL PER HOUR ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE, SUPPORTED BY EMBEDDED AREAS WITH BETTER RADAR REFLECTIVITY ON THE NE SIDE OF HAWAII ISLAND AND EASTERN MAUI. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES WHICH DISCONTINUE 12 APRIL 2021 AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2229 15823 2226 15823 1878 15284 1875 15551 2229 16099 . NNNN |
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