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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/12/21 0300Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 17W VIS/IR/WV 0240Z;AMSU/SSMIS 0210;PHLI RAOB 00Z; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER OAHU . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT GOES W SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GROWING THUNDERSTORM TOPS IN A LINE OF CONVECTION APPROACHING OAHU AND HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN IR SATELLITE ROTATES NEAR 16.5N/162.5W WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AS THEY FEED INTO THE LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING OAHU AT THIS MOMENT. H25 UPPER LEVEL WINDS FLOW INTO A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, WITH NW FLOW ALOFT OVER PHLI, AND WINDS FROM THE SW AND WEAKER WINDS OVER PHTO. AMSU PW ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.65 TO 1.85 INCHES.## . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0300-1000Z...HIGHER CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...STATIONARY AND SLOW MOVING CONVECTION OVER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS SOMETHING OF CONCERN REGARDING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WILL FLOW DOWNHILL IN CANYONS, CREEKS AND STREAMS. A LINE OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL GENERATE HEAVIER AMOUNTS LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN MORE FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING ALREADY IS OCCURRING ON THE ISLAND OF OAHU, WITH SOME PERSISTENT RAINFALL SEEN OVER THE ISLAND OF MAUI. MESONET SHOWS EASILY ACHIEVABLE RAINFALL RATES OF OVER TWO INCHES PER HOUR. MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT FLOW OF MOISTURE OVER HAWAII AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDING UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL LEAVES THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE WITH PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CIRCULATION PATTERN ALOFT, THEREFORE, EXPECT HEAVIER RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE OUTLOOK FOR THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN OF HAWAII, WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2239 15779 1834 15338 1828 15642 2236 16083 2238 15785 . NNNN |
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