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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/07/21 1855Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: TJUA RADAR,TJSJ ROAB, GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64 . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE IMAGERY OBSERVED A REGION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS FROM TJUA SHOWING SLOW MOVING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE LATEST UA RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGHLY CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW SBCAPE VALUES OBSERVED, HOWEVER AMPLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH THE LATEST TPW VALUES OBSERVED ABOVE 1.70". THE INTERACTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM TROPICAL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-2300Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS IN PLACE AND SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS DISSIPATES IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLAND KEEPING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SLOW MOVING OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BUT IN REGIONS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED REGIONS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1905 6555 1742 6519 1746 6752 1890 6757 . NNNN |
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