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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/08/21 1850Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: TJUA RADAR, TJSJ RAOB, GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64 . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE IMAGERY OBSERVED A SMALL REGION OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN IN THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS FROM TJUA. THE LATEST UA RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ OBSERVED LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH LOW SBCAPE IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUIET HIGH ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH TPW VALUES GREATER THAN 1.80" OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY. THE INTERACTION OF OROGRAPHIC LIFTING WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SLOW MOVING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-2200Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SLOW MOVING AND IN THE VICINITY OF MAINLY SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS WELL OVER THIS REGION UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS DISSIPATES. THE LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PERSISTENCE AND THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ALTHOUGH ISOLATED IN NATURE IS POSSIBLE IN REGIONS AFFECTED BY SLOW MOVING CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OVER THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1905 6555 1742 6519 1746 6752 1890 6757 . NNNN |
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