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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/21/21 1849Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64,TJUA RADAR, TJSJ RAOB SOUNDING . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF EASTERN AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE IMAGERY OBSERVED A REGION OF EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THAT IS PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE ISLAND. THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS FROM TJUA OBSERVED MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND BUT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. UPPER AIR RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM 12Z FROM TJSJ OBSERVED LOW SBCAPE AND TPW VALUES AROUND 1.18" NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGHLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE PROFILE BUT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WERE OBSERVED IN LOW LEVELS WHICH SUPPORTS THE PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TOWARDS THE ISLAND. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-2300Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH SUPPORT OF DIURNAL HEATING AS WELL AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TOWARDS THE ISLAND WHICH LIKELY COULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SYNOPTIC LIFT, AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT PROGRESSION AS WELL AS THE DURATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO BUT MORE LIKELY OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATED TOWARDS SUNSET. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1905 6555 1742 6519 1746 6752 1890 6757 . NNNN |
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