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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/27/21 1818Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, TJSJ SOUNDING, TJUA RADAR . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OBSERVED SEVERAL REGIONS OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL PUERTO RICO. THE LATEST UA RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ OBSERVED LIGHT LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG AND TPW VALUES GREATER THAN 1.40". THE REGION IS ALSO IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCING SYNOPTIC LIFT AND AIDING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1830-2230Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO THE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION AND THIS LIKELY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TILL THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS OCCURS IN THE EVENING HOURS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE DUE TO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PARTS OF CENTRAL PUERTO RICO, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST WITH THE EXACT DURATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN REGIONS OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1905 6555 1742 6519 1746 6752 1890 6757 . NNNN |
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