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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/28/21 1528Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, TJSJ SOUNDING, TJUA RADAR . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OBSERVED INCREASED DEVELOPMENT IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS PROGRESSING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PARTS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE LATEST UPPER AIR RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ OBSERVED A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH TPW VALUES GREATER THAN 1.70" AND SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. THE ISLAND IS PRESENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ALSO BEING AFFECTED BY AN INCOMING SMALL TROPICAL WAVE PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE ISLAND AIDING IN SYNOPTIC LIFT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS FROM TJUA OBSERVED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1530-2130Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW IN THE REGION AND THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH INCREASED DIURNAL HEATING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD RISK. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST WITH THE EXACT DURATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND. HIGH CONFIDENCE IS IN PLACE DUE TO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PARTS OF CENTRAL PUERTO RICO, WHERE SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1905 6555 1742 6519 1746 6752 1890 6757 . NNNN |
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