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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/09/21 1635Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: 1550Z GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING, 1614Z TJUA RADAR; 06Z HRW_PR_ARW . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WITH MORE NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ML TO UL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. ONSHORE FLOW AND LL MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IS ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. THE 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING SHOWS THIS EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE CONTINUING UP UNTIL AROUND 800MB WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH AND THEN SLOWLY TO THE ENE WITH HEIGHT. THE AIR ABOVE 750MB IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY WITH A NOTABLE MOIST LAYER AT AROUND 300MB. PWATS CURRENTLY HOVER AT AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH HIGHER VALUES APPROACHING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-0600Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS MORE MOIST ML-UL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SHOW EVIDENCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND BY 18Z AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY 00Z. A SLIGHT THREAT FOR RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING MAY EXIST IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1905 6555 1742 6519 1746 6752 1890 6757 . NNNN |
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