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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/23/21 1144Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-16 1100Z HANNA . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...ONGOING HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER E PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ONGOING HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVER THE E PORTION OF THE ISLAND WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGESTING LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OVER 1.0"/HR. THE LARGER SCALE PICTURE SHOWS THAT THE ONGOING HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS BEING AIDED BY AN ANOMALOUS NARROW TROF AXIS THAT WAS EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF THE N ATLANTIC SSW INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THERE ALSO APPEARED TO BE A SHORTWAVE TROF NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROF AXIS THAT WAS AIDING IN INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED THROUGHOUT THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE TROF AXIS HAS BEEN AMPLIFYING SE AND THE ISLAND WAS ALSO INCREASINGLY WITHIN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT JET ENTRANCE REGION TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION. INCREASING SE FLOW INTO THIS APPROACHING JET STREAK WAS RESULTING IN A SURGE OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SE CARIBBEAN LIFTING NE THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON THE MOST RECENT BLENDED PW ANALYSIS. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AT ROUGHLY 7OH WERE CONFLUENT OFF THE NW TIP OF THE ISLAND AND ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING PORTION OF SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. FURTHER SE, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH FORCING IN THE LOW LEVELS WAS WEAKER AND BEING DRIVEN MORE BY MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION LIFTING NW AND AFFECTING MOSTLY PORTIONS OF THE E ISLANDS. BELIEVE THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SHORT TERM WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT LIKELY EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND, BELIEVE THAT HEAVIEST RAINFALL THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE OVER E PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND WHERE IT APPEARS AS THOUGH, AS TROF BEGINS TO EJECT, THE BEST FORCING FROM JET ENTRANCE REGION SHOULD OVERLAP WITH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LIFT NW ON BLENDED PW ANALYSIS TOWARDS NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1887 6514 1804 6507 1749 6575 1747 6741 1787 6804 1841 6800 . NNNN |
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