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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/01/21 1704Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, GOES16 CH09 WV_6.9, TJUA RADAR, TJSJ SOUNDING, HRW_PR_ARW . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF INLAND AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES16 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OBSERVED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE IMAGERY OBSERVED STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS PROGRESSING INTO A REGION OF INSTABILITY AIDED BY SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM INFLOW IN THE OUTER REGION OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE HAVE SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SEEN IN THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS FROM TJUA OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE LATEST RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ OBSERVED A MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND WITH SBCAPE GREATER THAN 900 J/KG AND TPW GREATER 1.60". THE COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC LIFTING, INSTABILITY, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SEEN IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1730-2200Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY WITH SUPPORTIVE DYNAMICS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS PRIOR TO DIURNAL HEATING AND SUPPORTIVE DYNAMICS DISSIPATING BY THE EVENING HOURS. A MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IS IN PLACE WITH CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EVIDENT IN LATEST RADAR LOOPS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS LIKELY OVER THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST HOWEVER WITH THE DURATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS THAT EXPERIENCED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1887 6514 1804 6507 1749 6575 1747 6741 1787 6804 1841 6800 . NNNN |
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