NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
Satellite Precipitation Message

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
PRZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/06/21 1835Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, GOES16 CH09 WV_6.9, TJSJ SOUNDING, TJUA RADAR, HRW_PR_ARW
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OBSERVED A TROPICAL WAVE PRESENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THAT IS AIDING IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE ISLAND. THE LATEST RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ IS SUPPORTIVE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND WITH OBSERVED SBCAPE FROM EARLIER 12Z DATA NEAR 1700 J/KG AND TPW NEAR 1.80". THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS FROM TJUA OBSERVED A CONVECTIVE CELL COMPLEX PRIOR TO THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT IMPACTED SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AND DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PUERTO RICO PROGRESSING TOWARDS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE SUPPORTIVE DYNAMICS ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN PROXIMITY OF THE REGION AS WELL AS INSTABILITY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING HAS LEAD TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND PROGRESSING OVER PARTS OF THE ISLAND SEEN IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-2300Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THESE PARTS OF THE ISLAND IS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY OVER THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SUPPORTIVE DYNAMICS IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN THE EVENING OVER THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1887 6514 1804 6507 1749 6575 1747 6741 1787 6804
1841 6800
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No Graphics Available