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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/11/21 1416Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: 1340Z GOES-16, 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING, 13Z METARS, 1157Z RADAR, 06Z HRW_PR_ARW, 06Z GFS, 06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS; LEVINE . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...A CLEAR MOISTURE BOUNDARY SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY STATIONARY, WITH A SMALL BUT TIGHT REGION OF MOIST AIR BEING FUNNELED TO THE ESE, AROUND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NE. THE LATEST GOES-16 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR, AS EASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS SIT BELOW WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. THIS IS FURTHER HIGHLIGHTED IN THE 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING, WHERE THE WINDS SHARPLY CHANGE DIRECTION AT AROUND 775MB. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A MOIST COLUMN OF AIR ALL THE WAY UP TO 300MB. THIS MOISTURE IS FURTHER OBSERVED WITH PWATS SITTING ABOVE AN INCH THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE REGION AND DEW POINTS OBSERVED AT 13Z IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OFFSHORE ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS INITIATING ON THE EAST COAST MOVING WEST. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 18Z-06Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW, WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR. NWP MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE ISLAND. THEREFORE, OVERALL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURPASS TOTALS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THOUGH AMOUNTS MAY STILL POSE A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CURRENT LEVEL OF GROUND SATURATION. ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1880 6570 1862 6527 1838 6514 1803 6520 1776 6574 1757 6688 1779 6746 1807 6764 1835 6763 1858 6730 1872 6662 . NNNN |
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