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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/22/21 1944Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, GOES16 CH09 WV_6.9, TJSJ SOUNDING, TJUA RADAR, HRW_PR_ARW/ SAMBUCCI . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN, WESTERN, AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OBSERVED A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS AIDING IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE ISLAND. THE LATEST RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ IS SUPPORTIVE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PROFILE FOR THE ISLAND WITH OBSERVED SBCAPE FROM EARLIER 12Z DATA ABOVE 2200 J/KG AND TPW ABOVE 1.70". THE LATEST RADAR LOOPS FROM TJUA OBSERVED EARLIER CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO PROGRESSING OUT OF THE REGION AND NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PROGRESSING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1945-2300Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DURATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD, BUT MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE OVER THE ISLAND. THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO, BUT IS LIKELY OVER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. REGIONS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD RISK IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE AFTERNOON WITH SUPPORTIVE DYNAMICS OF DIURNAL HEATING IN PLACE WHICH IS AIDING IN ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1880 6570 1862 6527 1838 6514 1803 6520 1776 6574 1757 6688 1779 6746 1807 6764 1835 6763 1858 6730 1872 6662 . NNNN |
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