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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/28/21 1505Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-16 WV 1440Z . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CURRENT GOES-16 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER DRY UPPER-LEVEL LOW ROTATING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ENABLING LIFTING FROM THE SFC. SFC TPW SHOWS AMOUNTS WELL OVER 1" NEARING 1.75" CONSISTENTLY OVER THE ISLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND, THOUGH ACTIVITY ON THE EASTERN SIDE SHOULD DWINDLE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPARK THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND WHERE SCATTERED STORM CELLS MAY DEVELOP. MODELED RAINFALL RATES ARE NEARING 2" PER HOUR IS SOME REGIONS. LOW-LVL WINDS ARE FCST TO REMAIN EASTERLY ALL DAY, BUT UPPER-LVL WINDS APPEAR TO BE NORTHERLY AND TURNING AS THE LOW CROSSES OVERHEAD CAUSING SOME SHEAR, WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY THUS LEADING TO MORE STORM CELL DEVELOPMENT. SUCH INSTABILITY AND SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT IN A RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT CAN CAUSE HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-2100Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPORADICALLY TRACK OVER EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS BUT ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION WILL FIZZLE AS THE LARGE DRY UPPER-LEVEL LOW ENCROACHES ON THE AREA. NEW STORM CELLS WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL DEVELOP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION COMES THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS, SMALL STREAMS, AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE AND IN REGIONS OF STEEP TERRAIN. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1880 6570 1862 6527 1838 6514 1803 6520 1776 6574 1757 6688 1779 6746 1807 6764 1835 6763 1858 6730 1872 6662 . NNNN |
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