NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
Satellite Precipitation Message

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
PRZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/15/21 1435Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-16 EIR 14Z/MIMIC-TPW2/TJUA RADAR/06Z GFS; BAK
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...
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EVENT...TROPICAL STORM GRACE HEAVY RAINBANDS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...12Z PSN OF DISORGANIZED TS GRACE FM NHC
WAS NR 17.1N/65.4W MOVG WNW AT 14 KT. LATEST GOES-16 EIR IMAGERY SHOWS
AREA OF RAPIDLY COOLING OF CLOUD TPS LAST FEW HR JUST TO E OF RGN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER BAND OF THE TS WITH TPS AS COLD AS -75C. IN
ADDITION, LTG PLOT INDICATES A NUMBER OF CG STRIKES WITH THIS BAND IN LAST
HR WITH THIS AREA. INTENSE CELLS ON RADAR APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO E-W
LINE AND WILL OVERSPREAD ERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND IN NEXT HR AND REST
OF THE ISLAND OVR NEXT 2-4 HR WITH TRAINING PSBL. WEAK TROF TO NW OF RGN
INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY MAY SERVE AS ADDNTL FOCUS OF HVY RA ESP CNTRL AND
WRN PARTS OF THE ISLAND LATER THIS AFTN AS INITIAL RAIN BAND PROGRESSES WWD.

POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS HI AS 06Z GFS ANALYSIS HAS AREA OF PWATS
UP TO 5 STND DEV ABV AVG E AND SE OF RGN ASSOC WITH THE TS. MIMIC-TPW2
PRODUCT CONFIRMS THIS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 3". A RATHER LARGE AMOUNT OF
CAPE (NR 4000 J/KG) WAS PRESENT ON THE 12Z TJSJ RAOB ALONG WITH PWAT VALUE
OF 2.23", AND THESE FACTORS SHUD AID IN EXCESSIVE RFALL. GFS GALVEZ-DAVIDSON
INDEX VALUES CURRENTLY NR 35 FCST TO INCR TO 40 IN NEXT 6 HR. WIDESPREAD
2-3" OF RAIN IS LIKELY THIS AFTN WITH ISLTD TOTALS 5" PSBL.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1867 6559 1855 6517 1818 6508 1769 6565 1752 6736
1797 6769 1838 6758 1866 6691
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