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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/20/21 1412Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-16 1350Z HANNA . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT TODAY WITH MOISTURE FROM PETER . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MOST RECENT BLENDED TPW ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEADING BAND OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM TS PETER BEGAN TO MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED WITH MOST RECENT SJU RAOB WHERE TPWS INCREASED FROM 1.67" TO 2.24" BETWEEN 0Z AND 12Z. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE AREA IS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE VIC OF 24.3N/64.1W TO AID IN SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT NEAR DIFFLUENT S EDGE OF SYSTEM. THERE ALSO APPEARED TO BE A WEAK JET STREAK THAT MIGHT BE PROVIDING SOME VERY WEAK DYNAMIC SUPPORT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF N CNTRL PUERTO RICO, VIS IMAGERY WAS INDICATING MUCH OF THE ISLAND WAS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE WITH MOST ACTIVE STORMS OFF THE N COAST OF THE ISLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING BENEATH SOME SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOTED ON 12Z SOUNDING. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WEAK CAP BEGINS TO ERODE ALONG SEA BREEZE AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS. THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BACK THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH APPROACHING TS PETER TO THE NE OF THE ISLAND, AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOTH A PREFERRED STORM MOTION AND MOISTURE FLUX TO BE DIRECTED FROM NE TO SW AND THIS COULD ALSO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATING CONVECTION ALONG E AND NE FLANKS OF BOUNDARIES TO ENHANCE ANY POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1888 6517 1830 6483 1771 6517 1760 6634 1762 6725 1815 6753 1862 6727 1884 6617 . NNNN |
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