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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/29/21 1845Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 1820Z . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD RISK . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES-16 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AND AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING OVER MOST OF PR FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE CELLS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OF PR. G16 VIS DATA SHOWS WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PR. THE LATEST 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS OVER 2500 J/KG OF CAPE AND PW VALUES OF OVER 1.70" ALLOWING FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER PR AS WELL AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM PR SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1830-0000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING SUBSIDES. THE RISK FOR FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF PR IS PRESENT DUE TO MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STALLS OR TRAINS. FLASH FLOODING COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION IS FALLING QUICKLY. AREAS WITH SATURATED GROUNDS PRESENT A HIGHER RISK FOR FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1888 6517 1830 6483 1771 6517 1760 6634 1762 6725 1815 6753 1862 6727 1884 6617 . NNNN |
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