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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/17/21 1545Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-16 1510Z HANNA . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT AGAIN TODAY . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE PATTERN OF AN ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TODAY BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. BLENDED PW ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THAT PERHAPS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITHIN THIS AXIS HAD BRIEFLY SLIPPED SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BUT VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING WAS SUGGESTING THAT WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN HAVE BEGUN TO VEER TO A MORE SE DIRECTION AND THIS SHOULD PERHAPS ALLOW FOR THE CORE OF THE MOISTURE AXIS TO DEVELOP NW AND OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. WV IMAGERY WAS SHOWING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND THAT MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAK AND DOMINATED BY TERRAIN AND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MOST RECENT VIS IMAGERY WAS SHOWING DEEPENING CU/TCU WITHIN THESE FAVORED REGIONS JUST INLAND FROM THE NE COAST AND ALSO ALONG THE INLAND TERRAIN AND SEA BREEZE ON THE SOUTH COAST. BELIEVE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED DAY TIME HEATING HELPING TO ERODE ANY REMAINING INHIBITION OVER THE REGION. MORNING TJSJ SOUNDING WAS SHOWING A BIT OF MID LEVEL COOLING WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STEEPER BUT STILL MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE ISLANDS, BELIEVE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER WINDS OVER THE ISLAND WITH 0-6KM WINDS OF ONLY 3KTS OUT OF THE SW. THUS WOULD EXPECT THAT CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER FAVORED INLAND TERRAIN SHOULD VERY SLOWLY DEVELOP NE TO THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1881 6567 1867 6521 1824 6510 1797 6526 1770 6602 1769 6719 1799 6766 1835 6766 1855 6745 1868 6670 . NNNN |
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