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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/20/21 1618Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, GOES16 CH09 WV_6.9,TJSJ SOUNDING, TJUA RADAR, HRW_PR_ARW/ SAMBUCCI . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OBSERVED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EAST OVER THE USVI NOW PROGRESSING OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION INTERACTING WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND WHICH IN TURN HAS PROMOTED SYNOPTIC LIFT ALONG WITH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLAND. THE LATEST RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ IS SUPPORTIVE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND WITH EARLIER 12Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2700 J/KG, ALONG WITH A LIFTING INDEX OF -6 CELSIUS, AND TPW VALUES GREATER THAN 2.00". LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AROUND 10KTS HAVE RESULTED IN THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1630-2230Z...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EXACT COVERAGE AND THE DURATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLAND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PARTS OF INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED AND WHERE FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE EARLY PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LIKELY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1881 6567 1867 6521 1824 6510 1797 6526 1770 6602 1769 6719 1799 6766 1835 6766 1855 6745 1868 6670 . NNNN |
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