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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/01/21 1853Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, GOES16 CH09 WV_6.9, TJSJ SOUNDING, TJUA RADAR, HRW_PR_ARW/ SAMBUCCI . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OBSERVED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO DUE TO TRADE WIND CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OVER THE ISLAND TO PROMOTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INITIATING CONVECTION. THE LATEST RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ IS SUPPORTIVE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE PROFILE OVER THE ISLAND WITH EARLIER 12Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1050 J/KG, ALONG WITH A LIFTING INDEX OF -4 CELSIUS, AND TPW VALUES GREATER THAN 1.50". LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AROUND 1OKTS HAVE RESULTED IN THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-2300Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND DIURNAL HEATING OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THE EXACT COVERAGE AND THE DURATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLAND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE CELLS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO, WHERE RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED, AND WHERE FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE EARLY PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1906 6498 1893 6441 1861 6414 1820 6411 1783 6423 1759 6483 1745 6596 1753 6692 1805 6768 1852 6748 1881 6611 . NNNN |
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