NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
Satellite Precipitation Message

ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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VIZ000-PRZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/03/21 1445Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: G16- 1400Z
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...
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EVENT...MOD/HEAVY PRECIPITATION
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES 16 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF INCREASED WATER VAPOR TO OVER PUERTO RICO MOVING WEST. AS THIS AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PR WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE IN PLACE, IT IS LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS FLOODING CONCERN. THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM PR INDICATES HIGH PW VALUES AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. A FLOOD RISK IS PRESENT FOR AREAS WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AS WELL AS URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS WITH TRAINING OR MORE CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND BUT CONVECTION IS MOVING WEST.

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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1400-2000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS DAY TIME HEATING FUELS CONVECTIVE GROWTH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST OVER THE ISLAND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL DAY TIME HEATING SUBSIDES OR UNTIL THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE IS NO LONGER PRESENT. AN UPDATED OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1900Z IF CONDITIONS WARRANT AN UPDATE.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 1906 6498 1893 6441 1861 6414 1820 6411 1783 6423
1759 6483 1745 6596 1753 6692 1805 6768 1852 6748
1881 6611
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