|
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/10/21 1904Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, GOES16 CJ09 WV_6.9, TJSJ SOUNDING, TJUA RADAR, HRW_PR_ARW/ SAMBUCCI . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OBSERVED A REGION OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO DUE TO TRADE WIND CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OVER THE ISLAND. THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE CURRENTLY ARE PROMOTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INITIATING CONVECTION. THE LATEST RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ IS SUPPORTIVE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND WITH SBCAPE NEAR 1200 J/KG AND TPW NEAR 1.70" OBSERVED IN EARLIER 12Z SOUNDING DATA. MOISTURE CONTENT HOWEVER OVER THE REGION REMAINS FAIRLY LOW WITH A LARGE REGION OF DRY AIR IN PLACE. LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS HAS RESULTED IN THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1930-2230Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND SUPPORTIVE DYNAMICS OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THE EXACT COVERAGE APPEARING ISOLATED AND SCATTERED NOT WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION AS WELL AS THE DURATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLAND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, HOWEVER DYNAMICS IN PLACE ARE NOT VERY STRONG TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN DURING PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SETS UP AND SLOWLY PROGRESSES OVER SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1906 6498 1893 6441 1861 6414 1820 6411 1783 6423 1759 6483 1745 6596 1753 6692 1805 6768 1852 6748 1881 6611 . NNNN |
No Graphics Available
|