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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/29/21 1908Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES16 CH02 VIS_0.64, GOES16 CH09 WV_6.9, TJSJ SOUNDING, TJUA RADAR, HRW_PR_ARW/ SAMBUCCI . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES16 VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OBSERVED A REGION OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO DUE TO A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND INTERACTING WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING OVER THE ISLAND. THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE CURRENTLY ARE PROMOTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INITIATING CONVECTION. THE LATEST RAOB SOUNDING DATA FROM TJSJ IS SUPPORTIVE OF A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND WITH SBCAPE AROUND 1700 J/KG AND TPW VALUES GREATER THAN 1.50" OBSERVED IN EARLIER 12Z SOUNDING DATA. MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE REGION REMAINS LOW HOWEVER WITH A LARGE REGION OF DRY AIR IN PLACE. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS HAS RESULTED IN THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1930-2230Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO IS LIKELY OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND SUPPORTIVE DYNAMICS OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH THE EXACT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COVERAGE APPEARING ISOLATED AND SCATTERED NOT WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS ALSO HIGH WITH THE EXACT DURATION OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE ISLAND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, DYNAMICS IN PLACE ARE NOT VERY STRONG TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SETS UP AND SLOWLY PROGRESSES OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1906 6498 1893 6441 1861 6414 1820 6411 1783 6423 1759 6483 1745 6596 1753 6692 1805 6768 1852 6748 1881 6611 . NNNN |
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