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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/23/18 0244Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 15 0145Z; HIMAWARI IR_11.2; AMSU 0050Z; SSMIS 0110Z; FS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED DATA INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE ENTIRE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN. UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN ON GOES 15 WV IMAGERY NEAR 26N/169W AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS ALLOWING BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH PW AMOUNTS ESTIMATED USING LATEST SSMIS/AMSU DATA NEAR 2.75 INCHES WITH HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.25 INCHES HIGHER END BRIGHTNESS TEMPS ON BLTPW INDICATING 2.0 INCH PW QUANTITIES. THE BALLOON SOUNDING PW VALUES WERE 1.60 INCHES AT PHLI/PHTO AT 00Z, CAPE 1600-2100J/KG, LI=-5. DYNAMIC LIFT GENERATED ALOFT BY THE DIFFLUENCE OF WIND VECTORS WILL AID IN ASCENT, AND LIFT PRODUCED BY FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF A RIGHT ENTRANCE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK AT 250-300MB CONTAINING WIND VELOCITIES OF 90-110 KTS WITHIN ITS CORE OF HIGHER SPEED WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY FACTOR IN THE PRODUCTION OF EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THE LATEST AMSU 89GHZ PASSES AND HIMAWARI IR_11.2 DATA SHOWED HIGHER BT VALUES SW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS THE ACTIVITY CROSSES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0245-1045Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...A MESOSCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITHIN AN APPROACHING SHIELD OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INDICATED ON LOCAL RADAR WILL IMPACT HAWAII. AT 0234Z THE ROTATION WAS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N/157.8W AND APPEARED TO BE DIMINISHING BUT STILL COULD BRING TORRENTIAL RAIN TO THE ISLANDS OF HAWAII, ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERNMOST ISLANDS. FLASH FLOODING VERY LIKELY WITH THE IMPENDING EVENT WITH RADAR ALREADY ESTIMATING AMOUNTS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2256 16013 2255 15389 1878 15462 1879 16099 2254 16016 . NNNN |
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