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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/27/18 0630Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 15 IR_10.7; HIGH DENSITY WINDS;FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...FLASH FLOODING DUE TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER OAHU . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SATELLITE IMAGERY DERIVED FIELDS OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ARE FAVORABLE FOR GENERATING LIFT OVER THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. OAHU HAS RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL AND IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE BASED ON LATE ONE HOUR AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO 0.67 INCHES TO THREE HOUR TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. A MESOSCALE CIRCULATION WAS INDICATED ON LOCAL RADAR EAST OF OAHU MOVING SE TO NW, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK 90KTS AT 300MB POSITIONED WITH THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FOR GENERATING LIFT OVER THE WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS SATELLITE DERIVED MOISTURE QUANTITIES PER SSMIS/AMSU SATELLITE RANGE FROM 1.25 TO 1.4 INCHES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUDS WITH COLDER TOPS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH THE BIG ISLAND CLOSER TO BETTER THE ENHANCEMENT. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0630-0930Z...LOWER CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...OAHU HAVING RECEIVED MOST OF THE RAINFALL PERTINENT TO THIS DISCUSSION ON THE EAST SIDE MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING BECAUSE OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FOCUSED RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA TOTALING 2.25-3.65 IN 6 HRS. RADAR ALSO INDICATES THE STREAM OF CONVECTION IS TRAINING OVER THE EAST SIDE OF OAHU WHERE PREVIOUS RAINS HAVE FALLEN POTENTIALLY BACKBUILDING BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE REFLECTIVITY PATTERN AS OF 0616Z. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH PER HOUR MAY GENERATE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, URBAN AREAS, AND IN AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2271 16022 2268 15358 1884 15468 1887 16146 2270 16020 . NNNN |
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