|
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/20/18 2103Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 VIS IMAGE 2045Z; HOSLEY . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS...SERFC... . EVENT...TROPICAL WAVE . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES 16 SATELLITE DATA ANALYSIS IS INDICATING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO, AS WELL AS JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN SHORE AND ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO, AS DEEP MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA, CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP MOISTURE (TPW AOA 2 INCHES) AND A TUTT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SARGASSO SEA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. ALSO OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE A SERIES OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, ALONG WHICH CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT. THESE THREE ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NECESSARY FOR DEEP AND EFFICIENT CONVECTION. THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS MODERATE TO HIGH ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND, WHEREAS LOWER POTENTIAL IS OBSERVED ON THE EASTERN SIDE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OFF TOWARD THE WEST. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IMPACT ON USVI/VIEQUES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2100-0100Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE GREATEST IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, LOCATED ABOUT 100 MI NORTH OF THE ISLAND, HAS PRODUCED VIGOROUS CONVECTION FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS FIRED CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ISLAND AND IS NOW IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHERN SHORES. A THIRD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS SEEN IMPINGING ON THE EASTERN COAST, ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT HAVE THE CONVECTION THE OTHER TWO HAVE. ALSO EVIDENT IS AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO, WITH ONE OR TWO BREAKING THROUGH AND PRODUCING LIGHTNING RETURNS. AS THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE ONSHORE, COUPLED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY, DEEP MOISTURE, AND UPSLOPE FLOW, EXPECT STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR. THE LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE THE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE SOUTH TO NORTH FLOW AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING TOWARDS 00Z. EXPECT BY 01Z TO SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DIMINISH WITH THE THREAT LESSENING TO SOME DEGREE AFTER SUNSET. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1858 6503 1781 6528 1783 6758 1856 6727 1856 6689 . NNNN |
No Graphics Available
|