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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/19/18 1507Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 IR/WV 1430Z, AMSU PWAT; MC . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES-15 IR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INITIATING AND QUICKLY COLLAPSING ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING SURFACE TROF THAT LIES BETWEEN OAHU AND KAUAI. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF, A POOL OF 2"+ PWAT LIES OVER AND AROUND OAHU, AND HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS WELL-CONFINED BELOW 700MB, AS NOTED BY THE 12Z PHLI RAOB AND THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR NOTED IN THE MID-LEVELS ON GOES-15 WV IMAGERY. THIS IS KEEPING CONVECTION FAIRLY SHALLOW, WHICH IS LIKELY HAVING A LIMITING EFFECT ON RAINFALL RATES. RECENT RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS ON OAHU HAVE BEEN MOSTLY BELOW 1"/HR, BUT 3HR TOTALS RANGE BETWEEN 1-3". SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY, WHILE WIND DIRECTIONS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY. THE 12Z PHLI RAOB SUGGESTS NOTABLE INSTABILITY, WITH CAPE OF 2800 J/KG. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-2100Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE 12Z RAP FORECASTS THE TROF TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE POOL OF ENHANCED PWAT WILL FOLLOW, AND THIS WILL BRING IT ACROSS KAUAI. THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLANDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING AFTER SUNRISE. CONVECTION OVER LAND WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE OPPOSING WINDS ALOFT WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES IN THESE AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT THIS. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE OUTLOOK PERIOD COULD BE ENOUGH OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO CREATE SOME FLOODING ISSUES. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2387 16054 2093 15465 1802 15468 2125 16061 2351 16061 2359 16060 . NNNN |
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