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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/12/18 1517Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 15 IR 10.7 1430Z; AMSU 1140Z; FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...THE CPHC LOCATION OF T.S. OLIVIA AS OF 1500Z IS 21.2 N 155.7 W. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH FLASH FLOODING WITH T.S. OLIVIA . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR 21.2N/155.7W MOVING CLOSER TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...MAUI AND MOLOKAI IN PARTICULAR. SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES BASED UPON PW QUANTITIES IN RANGE FROM 2.0-2.4 INCHES FROM THE EDGE OF THE STORM IMPACTING THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST TO HIGH PW MAXIMUMS NEAR THE CENTER OF OLIVIA. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE PERHAPS INDICATING MORE VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT OF THE BANDS ABOUT TO IMPACT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS RESULTING IN SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. IN ANY CASE TROPICAL RAINFALL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1515-0015Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...BANDS OF RAIN ARE DEVELOPING AS THE STREAMS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FORCED UP THE STEEP MOUNTAIN TERRAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING ALREADY INDICATED BY STREAM GAUGE MONITORING. DEEPER TROPICAL CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. COMPLICATED INTERACTION REGARDING CIRCULATION PATTERNS AND VORTEX DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERATE REGIONS OF UP SLOPE FLOW IN OTHER AREAS THAN THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES MAKING THE LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL MORE NUMEROUS AND FLASH FLOODING MORE LIKELY. HIGHER RADAR REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR SHOWS APPROACHING BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL APPROACHING MOLOKAI ISLAND AS OF 1458Z. GFS MODEL FORECASTS SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE BANDS APPROACHING THE ENTIRE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN FROM EAST TO WEST WITH THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF HAWAII LATER BEING IMPACTED WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING T.S. OLIVIA. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2250 15841 1874 15295 1877 15625 2247 16166 2247 16164 . NNNN |
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