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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/26/18 1924Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 VIS; RADAR, AMSU 1830z . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST GOES 16 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER THE PUERTO RICO IS ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST CORNER ACROSS THE ISLAND USING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LATEST AMSU PW ESTIMATES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 2.0 INCHES WITH MORNING BALLOON DATA SHOWING CAPE VALUES EARLY IN THE DAY EXCEEDING 2700 J/KG. PLENTY OF MOISTURE, LIFT AND INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO DEVELOP. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1925-2225Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RADAR INDICATES AN AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF PUERTO RICO THAT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STATIONARY BASED ON TRENDS IN RECENT RADAR ECHOES. LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA SHOWS MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS IS PROBABLE. ALTHOUGH RECENT RADAR TRENDS DOES SHOW SOME EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS, DBZ LEVELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG; HOWEVER, SOME FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING MAXIMUM OF THE DAY. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1855 6724 1855 6723 1855 6554 1787 6570 1787 6739 . NNNN |
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