|
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/28/18 0249Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 15 0200Z;RADAR;AMSU;FCS . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...AKRFC... . EVENT...POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING FOR OAHU, MOLOKAI AND MAUI . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS SHOWS A STANDING WAVE WITH ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT AND THE FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND CYCLONIC ROTATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BLOCKING THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WATER VAPOR PLUME. THE INFLECTION POINT OF A WAVE IS NEAR 19.5N/158.5W AND BASED UPON THE EXPECTED NORTHEAST MOVEMENT THE WAVE COULD BE A SOURCE OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION GENERATING ADDED LIFT WITHIN THE MOISTURE CHANNEL, INDUCING ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY TO INDUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY TROPICAL RAINFALL AND PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. 850MB THETA E QUANTITIES ARE 340K. BALLOON SOUNDING FROM PHLI HAD AN 1.8 INCH PW, CLOSE IN VALUE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FROM THE SURFACE TO 700MB, A 16K FT FREEZING LEVEL, AS WELL AS -6C LI VALUES INDICATING DECENT MOISTURE IN AN FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH DECENT AVAILABLE ENERGY; THEREFORE, FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FOR TROPICAL RAINFALL. MOST RECENT 0130Z GOES 15 IR IMAGERY INDICATES COOLING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER MOST ISLANDS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN WITHIN THE AXIS OF BETTER MOISTURE. THE MOST DIRECTLY AFFECTED AREAS WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL INCLUDES OAHU, MOLOKAI AND MAUI. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0230-0830Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HAWAIIAN ISLAND RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND OAHU, MOLOKAI AND MAUI AS WELL AS A LARGER AREA OF ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH COOLING TOPS INDICATED USING SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS. THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STEADY RAINFALL WITH HEAVIER EMBEDDED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2248 16002 2236 16005 2242 15366 1854 15491 1857 16124 . NNNN |
No Graphics Available
|