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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/03/18 1932Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 CH 14 IR_11.2 1900Z;FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GPS SATELLITE MOISTURE DATA SHOWS 1.75 AND 2.0 IN PW QUANTITIES IN PLACE OVER PUERTO RICO. ENHANCEMENT ON IMAGERY INDICATING COOLING CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT USING THE LATEST GOES 16 IR_11.2 IMAGERY IS ALONG AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THAT IS ALONG A NORTHERN BAND ATTACHED TO AN AREA OF CYCLONIC ROTATION BETWEEN 14N-15N/71W TO THE SW OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS STREAM HIGH CLOUDS IN FROM THE WEST WHILE LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OPPOSE THE WINDS ALOFT AND SUPPLY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BAND OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT IS CURRENTLY MOST ACTIVE OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO TO THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND AND NORTH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGER AREA SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO THAT MAY BECOME SIGNIFICANT LATER, BUT FOR THE CURRENT PERIOD OF TIME THE ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT AREA MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1930-2230Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE CONVERGENCE OF SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO, FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE ISLAND GIVES AN INDICATION THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. 1925Z RADAR SHOW THE BEST CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT OVER THE CENTER OF PUERTO RICO AND TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OR AT LEAST URBANIZED RUNOFF ISSUES IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1857 6713 1787 6755 1789 6578 1857 6535 1857 6716 . NNNN |
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