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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/05/18 1928Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 VIS 1930Z; RADAR 1903Z; SSMIS/AMSU; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GROWING CONVECTION SEEN ON THE LATEST GOES 16 VIS. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE USVI. SATELLITE WV IMAGERY REVEALS MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE WEST OVER THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY VWP WINDS AT 250MB FROM WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL 850MB WINDS OPPOSE UPPER LEVEL WIND VECTORS. BALLOON MEASUREMENTS INDICATED LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST WITH PW QUANTITIES AROUND 2.0 INCHES, WHILE SATELLITE MOISTURE ESTIMATES USING SSMIS/AMSU PW DATA RANGE BETWEEN 1.85 AND 2.0 IN PW VALUES. AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH STORMS REMAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD IS HIGH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW CORNER AND ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND THROUGH THE METROPOLITAN SAN JUAN AREA TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER TO THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1930-2330Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST AS OF 1930Z, WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO AND US VIRGIN ISLANDS. A FLASH FLOODING RISK FOR URBAN AREAS, SMALL STREAMS AND CANYONS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1854 6728 1847 6501 1787 6527 1792 6742 1853 6728 . NNNN |
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