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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES VIZ000-PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/06/18 1740Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-16 1730Z; AMSU 1422Z;MC . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS...SERFC . EVENT...HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PUERTO RICO . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EVIDENT ON SJU RADAR AND GOES-16 IR IMAGERY. RECENT CONVECTION HAS PRESENTED COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND WEST TOWARDS HISPANIOLA. LIGHTNING OVER PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN FAIRLY LACKING, BUT IN THE LAST HOUR HAS BEGUN TO APPEAR. AN AMSU PASS AT 1422Z SHOWED PW AT AROUND 2.25 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. THE 12Z RAOB FROM SAN JUAN SHOWED PW AT 2.03 INCHES AND CAPE OF OVER 2000 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THEN HAD SHOWED GAPS THAT LIKELY HAVE INCREASED INSTABILITY THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING, BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM CURRENT CONVECTION HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ISLAND. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST SEEN IN WV IMAGERY IS HELPING TO CREATE DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER WESTERLIES ACROSS THE REGION, PROVIDING A MECHANISM FOR LARGE-SCALE LIFT. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1745-2345Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND, WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT IS GREATEST GIVEN THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE. SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF STEEPER TERRAIN AND POOR RUNOFF. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2035 6784 2027 6368 1632 6384 1640 6794 1642 6800 . NNNN |
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