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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/13/18 0542Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 EIR-WV 05Z / MIMIC-TPW2 04Z / AMSU-RAIN 0520Z; BAK . LOCATION...CENTRAL AND EASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...HEAVY RAIN . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES-15 IR/WV LOOPS SHOW A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROF TO THE NW AFFECTING THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH DEEP MOIST SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MIMIC-TPW2 PRODUCT INDICATES THIS DEEP MOISTURE WELL WITH A MAX OF PWATS OVER 2" JUST TO THE W AND SW OF THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF HEAVY RAIN THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS HEAVY RAIN AREA EARLIER HAD RATES UP TO .50"/HR OFFSHORE PER THE AMSU-RAIN PRODUCT. SLOW MOVING CELLS OVER AND JUST E OF OAHU HAVE BEEN PERSISTING IN PLACE FOR THE LAST 2 HR POSSIBLY TIED TO A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY BASED ON RADAR LOOPS. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0540-1140Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND UNABATING MOIST SW FLOW INTO THE AREA, EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT OAHU, MOLOKAI, LANAI, MAUI, AND THE BIG ISLAND THRU THE PERIOD. 18Z GFS ANALYSIS HAD PWAT ANOMALIES UP TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL A FEW HUNDRED MILES SW OF THE AREA SO THIS SHOULD AID IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS (UP TO 3" POSSIBLE) IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS AS THE HIGH PWATS ADVECT IN FROM THE SW. RADAR LOOPS SHOW BACK-BUILDING OF CELLS NEAR OAHU WHICH WILL INCREASE FLASH FLOOD THREATS LOCALLY. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2201 15782 2201 15782 2050 15485 1930 15440 1865 15574 2008 15824 2158 15861 . NNNN |
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