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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/13/18 1648Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 VIS 1615Z; PDL . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN ISLANDS . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LATEST SATELLITE WV IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NW OF PR AND VI. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH RECENT COOLING TOPS NEAR AND S OF PR AND VI. RECENT AMSU PW ON THE ORDER OF 2.0"-2.5" WHILE AMSU RR AS OF 14Z SHOWING 1-1.5" P/H. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING LONG SKINNY CAPE INDICATIVE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SUPPORT FOR VERY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE UL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE UL TROUGH TO THE NW AND S-SE FLOW SUPPLYING VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND FLOURISH GIVEN INCREASED INSTABILITY DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1700-0200Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTION MOVING FROM S OVER PR AND VI WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RR UP TO 2"/HR. THIS WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE FF, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEPER TERRAIN AND WHERE SOILS ARE SATURATED FROM EARLIER PRECIP. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNSET. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1865 6722 1862 6721 1862 6536 1785 6583 1781 6773 . NNNN |
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