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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/13/18 1752Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:1700Z PDL . LOCATION...HAWAII... . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM OAHU AND TO THE SE. . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOESW WV IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH TO THE NW OF THE ISLANDS. IR IMAGERY SHOWING DEEPER CONVECTION ORIENTED NE TO SW ACROSS O'AHU AND MOLOKA'I WITH LIGHTNING STRIKE DENSITY PRODUCT SHOWING MORE INTENSE CELLS WELL SW AND NE OF THE ISLANDS. AMSU PW 2.0" TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH 2.5" S OF HAWAI'I (ISLAND) AND RECENT AMSU RR 0.75" P/HR WITH EARLIER RATES APPROACHING 1.5" P/H. 12Z SOUNDING AT PHLI INDICATING DRYER AIR WORKED INTO THAT AREA WITH PW BELOW 1.5" AND SFC WIND SHIFTED AROUND TO N. MEANWHILE 12Z PHTO SOUNDING AGREES WITH PW OF 2.0"+ DEPICTED IN AMSU WHILE SHOWING SRLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND MODEST SKINNY CAPE AREA. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1800-0400Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AM NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT OF A WIDE-SCALE FF EVENT HERE. HOWEVER OWING TO THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS GIVEN POSITION OF UL TROUGH AND ACCESS TO ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME BELIEVE THAT DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT DEVELOP OVER LAND WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND SLOW MOVEMENT WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FF ISSUES WHERE TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT CAN OCCUR. AREA OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE GENERALLY NW TO SE WITH TIME AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO REGION. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . |
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