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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES HIZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/31/18 0347Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 VIS-IR-WV / AMSU TPW / . LOCATION...OAHU/MOLOKAI/LANAI/KAHOOLAWE/MAUI . ATTN WFOS...HFO... ATTN RFCS...APRFC... . EVENT...ONGOING HEAVY RAIN EVENT . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES-15 VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. GOES-15 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE AMSU TPW PRODUCT BOTH DEPICT A NARROW NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF EXCESSIVE TPW (IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES). PHTO AND PHLI SOUNDINGS CORROBORATE THIS, AS BOTH LOCATIONS LIE ON THE EDGE OF THE TPW PLUME. GOES-15 IR IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOP COOLING, INDICATIVE OF THE UPTICK IN CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK CAPE IN THE AREA OF APPROXIMATELY 500 J/KG. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0345-0945Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TPW AND LOW FORWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT. TRAINING IS ALSO A CONCERN HERE GIVEN THE NEAR PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND STORM MOTION VECTORS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL ISLANDS, AND BANDS ARE CURRENTLY POISED TO MOVE OVER THESE SAME PLACES. AREAS WHERE CLOUD TOPS ARE COLDEST AD INDICATE DEP CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 170 MILES SSW OF LANAI AND 88 MILES SSW OF KAHOOLAWE AS OF 0300Z. MORE EFFICIENT LOW TOP CONVECTION IS ALSO A CONCERN GIVEN THE EXCESSIVE TPW AND COULD BE SEEN CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION. THE GENERAL MOTION OF THESE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION IS TOWARD THE NNE AT 25MPH. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR 2-5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL MAXIMIZE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 2228 15802 2084 15569 1962 15640 2123 15882 . NNNN |
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