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ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL SPENES PRZ000- . SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 11/14/18 0300Z SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404 LATEST DATA USED: GOES 16 0245Z; AMSU RR 0130Z; FCS . LOCATION...PUERTO RICO... . ATTN WFOS...SJU... ATTN RFCS... . EVENT...HEAVY RAINFALL PUERTO RICO. . SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS... SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GOES 16 SATELLITE DOES SHOW A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROPICAL WAVE. AMSU RAINFALL HOURLY RATES ARE 1.25 INCHES AS OF THE 0150Z PASS OVER THE CARRIBBEAN, SSMIS/AMSU PW QUANTITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 2.33 INCHES UPSTREAM OF PUERTO RICO/USVI, THE 00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED ABOUT 2000 J/KG ENERGY AND 2.04 INCH PW QUANTITY; THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS APPRECIABLE CONSIDERING THESE METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS ALONE. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM ITSELF IS IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY, WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AS THE STORM TRAVERSES THE USVI AND THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNING FACTOR. . AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES. . SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0300-0900Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...INCREASING RAINFALL RATES OVER WET AND IN SOME CASES SATURATED GROUND FROM EARLIER TODAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR FLASH FLOODING RAINFALL FOR THE USVI AND PUERTO RICO. INCREASING LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF PUERTO RICO IS EVIDENT USING THE LATEST DATA AVAILABLE AS WELL. . ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP).... ....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.... . FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL SSDPrecip@noaa.gov . FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/ . FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB: http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php . LAT...LON 1857 6721 1852 6532 1789 6549 1790 6740 1856 6721 . NNNN |
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